Bachelor's Degree Completion Rate by Country - Adults 25+ (2026)

Bachelor's degree completion rate measures the percentage of adults aged 25 and older who have successfully completed tertiary education (ISCED 6 and above), including bachelor's degrees, master's degrees, and doctoral qualifications. In countries where tertiary education pathways are integrated into different systems, individuals with equivalent higher educational attainment are included to ensure international comparability. This indicator captures adults who completed university-level education, professional graduate programs, or research-based advanced degrees that require substantial post-secondary study.

Understanding Bachelor's Degree and Higher Education

Bachelor's degree and higher education completion represents the culmination of tertiary education, encompassing university degrees, professional qualifications, and advanced research credentials. These qualifications include bachelor's degrees (typically 3-4 years), master's degrees (1-2 years post-bachelor's), and doctoral degrees (3-7+ years of research and study), providing advanced knowledge and specialized expertise for professional careers. Unlike secondary education, tertiary education emphasizes specialized knowledge, critical thinking, research capabilities, and professional expertise. Graduates with bachelor's degrees and higher qualifications typically access professional careers in fields such as medicine, law, engineering, business, education, science, and technology, commanding higher salaries and greater career advancement opportunities than those with secondary education alone.

Bachelor's Degree Completion Rate by Country - Adults 25+ (2026)

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#	Country	2026 Estimate (%)
1	United Arab Emirates AE	54.5%
2	Luxembourg LU	43.5%
3	Ireland IE	43.1%
4	Switzerland CH	43%
5	Lithuania LT	42.5%
6	Russia RU	42%
7	United Kingdom GB	41%
8	United States US	40.5%
9	Canada CA	40%
10	South Korea KR	40%
11	Israel IL	39.5%
12	Australia AU	39%
13	Kazakhstan KZ	39%
14	Belgium BE	38.6%
15	Japan JP	38%
16	Netherlands NL	37.8%
17	Singapore SG	37.4%
18	Saudi Arabia SA	37.2%
19	Sweden SE	36.4%
20	Cyprus CY	36.2%
21	Ukraine UA	36.2%
22	Iceland IS	36%
23	Georgia GE	35.2%
24	Denmark DK	35.1%
25	Latvia LV	34.7%
26	Estonia EE	34.4%
27	New Zealand NZ	33.8%
28	Norway NO	33.7%
29	Mongolia MN	32.7%
30	Puerto Rico PR	32.3%
31	France FR	32%
32	Germany DE	32%
33	Qatar QA	31.9%
34	Curaçao CW	31.7%
35	Finland FI	31.4%
36	Bahrain BH	30.7%
37	Greece GR	30.4%
38	Spain ES	30%
39	Belarus BY	29.8%
40	Poland PL	29.5%
41	Italy IT	28%
42	Bulgaria BG	27.9%
43	Hungary HU	27.9%
44	Malta MT	27.8%
45	Armenia AM	27.4%
46	Slovakia SK	26.8%
47	Andorra AD	26.5%
48	Portugal PT	26.4%
49	Kyrgyzstan KG	25.4%
50	Jordan JO	24.7%
51	Palestine PS	24.3%
52	Moldova MD	24.1%
53	Chile CL	23.8%
54	Lebanon LB	23.6%
55	Croatia HR	23.5%
56	Czech Republic CZ	23.5%
57	Slovenia SI	23.5%
58	Türkiye TR	23.4%
59	Costa Rica CR	23.1%
60	Timor-Leste TL	21.9%
61	Bolivia BO	21.6%
62	North Macedonia MK	21.5%
63	Serbia RS	21.5%
64	Aruba AW	21.1%
65	Montenegro ME	21.1%
66	Oman OM	20.6%
67	Brunei BN	20%
68	China CN	20%
69	San Marino SM	19.9%
70	Philippines PH	19.6%
71	Iran IR	19.4%
72	Azerbaijan AZ	19.2%
73	Colombia CO	19.2%
74	Albania AL	19%
75	Thailand TH	18.9%
76	Ecuador EC	18.6%
77	Uzbekistan UZ	18.4%
78	Bahamas BS	18.2%
79	Austria AT	18.1%
80	Samoa WS	18%
81	Paraguay PY	17.7%
82	Cuba CU	16.8%
83	New Caledonia NC	16.7%
84	Mexico MX	16%
85	Antigua and Barbuda AG	15.7%
86	Palau PW	15.7%
87	Malaysia MY	15.6%
88	Panama PA	15.6%
89	Romania RO	15.6%
90	Dominican Republic DO	15.4%
91	Comoros KM	15.1%
92	South Africa ZA	15%
93	Uruguay UY	13.9%
94	Tunisia TN	13.8%
95	Mauritius MU	12.7%
96	Turks and Caicos Islands TC	12.7%
97	Algeria DZ	12.4%
98	Bosnia and Herzegovina BA	12.3%
99	Vietnam VN	12.3%
100	Saint Lucia LC	12.1%
101	Egypt EG	12%
102	India IN	12%
103	Maldives MV	12%
104	Iraq IQ	11.9%
105	Jamaica JM	11.9%
106	Trinidad and Tobago TT	11.1%
107	Fiji FJ	11%
108	Turkmenistan TM	10.6%
109	Seychelles SC	10.5%
110	Myanmar MM	10.4%
111	Indonesia ID	10.3%
112	Nigeria NG	10%
113	Suriname SR	9.9%
114	Namibia NA	9.6%
115	Bhutan BT	9.5%
116	Sudan SD	9.1%
117	Grenada GD	8.4%
118	Bangladesh BD	8%
119	Botswana BW	7.9%
120	Honduras HN	7.9%
121	El Salvador SV	7.8%
122	Belize BZ	7.5%
123	Dominica DM	7.3%
124	Kenya KE	7.3%
125	Pakistan PK	7%
126	Rwanda RW	7%
127	Eswatini SZ	6.9%
128	Ghana GH	6.8%
129	Laos LA	6.8%
130	Tonga TO	6.5%
131	Cambodia KH	6.3%
132	Wallis and Futuna WF	5.8%
133	Guatemala GT	5.6%
134	Liberia LR	5.6%
135	Ivory Coast CI	5.5%
136	Sao Tome and Principe ST	5.3%
137	Guyana GY	5%
138	Togo TG	4.9%
139	Uganda UG	4.9%
140	Somalia SO	4.8%
141	Marshall Islands MH	4.7%
142	Benin BJ	4.4%
143	Ethiopia ET	4.3%
144	Senegal SN	4.3%
145	Vanuatu VU	3.8%
146	Papua New Guinea PG	3.6%
147	Mozambique MZ	3.5%
148	Madagascar MG	3.4%
149	Zambia ZM	3.3%
150	Guinea-Bissau GW	3.1%
151	Burkina Faso BF	3%
152	Gambia GM	3%
153	Mali ML	2.8%
154	Tanzania TZ	2.8%
155	Nauru NR	2.6%
156	Sierra Leone SL	2.5%
157	Central African Republic CF	2.3%
158	Chad TD	2.3%
159	Kiribati KI	2.3%
160	Afghanistan AF	2%
161	Malawi MW	1.8%
162	Zimbabwe ZW	1.6%
163	Angola AO	1.5%
164	Niger NE	1.5%
165	Sri Lanka LK	1.4%

Global Leaders in Higher Education Attainment

Developed economies with strong university systems achieve the highest bachelor's degree completion rates, with the United Arab Emirates leading at 54.5%, followed by Ireland (43.5%), Luxembourg (43.5%), and Switzerland (43.0%). These countries benefit from well-established tertiary education systems, substantial investment in research universities, and cultural emphasis on higher education as essential for professional success. Nordic and Western European countries demonstrate exceptional higher education achievement, with Lithuania (42.5%), Russia (42.0%), and the United Kingdom (41.0%) showing strong tertiary education completion. These countries have developed comprehensive university systems with multiple pathways to advanced degrees and strong employer recognition of higher education credentials. English-speaking developed nations show strong higher education attainment, with the United States (40.5%), Canada (40.0%), and Australia (39.0%) reflecting well-developed tertiary education systems with extensive university networks and strong international recognition of degrees. These countries benefit from substantial higher education investment and cultural emphasis on university education.

Regional Patterns in Tertiary Education

European Union members demonstrate varied higher education achievement, with Nordic and Western European countries leading while Central and Eastern European countries show moderate completion rates. The variation reflects differences in university system development, economic resources for higher education investment, and historical education traditions. East Asian developed economies show strong higher education attainment, with South Korea (40.0%) and Japan (38.0%) reflecting high university enrollment rates and cultural emphasis on educational achievement. These countries have developed comprehensive tertiary education systems with strong employer demand for university graduates. Latin American countries show moderate higher education achievement, with Brazil (18.0%) and Mexico (16.0%) demonstrating growing tertiary education expansion. These countries are investing in university system development to meet increasing demand for skilled professionals in growing economies.

Economic Development and Higher Education

Economic development level strongly correlates with bachelor's degree completion rates, as advanced economies require highly educated workforces for knowledge-intensive industries, research, and professional services. Countries with diversified economies typically invest more heavily in tertiary education to develop specialized expertise and maintain competitive advantages. Labor market structure significantly influences higher education participation. Countries where bachelor's degrees lead to well-paid, respected professional employment achieve higher completion rates, while economies with limited opportunities for university graduates struggle to attract students to tertiary education. The presence of strong professional employment opportunities drives demand for higher education. Research and innovation capacity depends substantially on higher education attainment. Countries with high bachelor's degree completion rates typically develop stronger research sectors, more innovative industries, and greater capacity for technological advancement. The educated workforce becomes essential for economic competitiveness and innovation-driven growth.

Professional Career Development and Specialization

Bachelor's degree completion enables access to professional careers requiring specialized expertise and advanced knowledge. Fields such as medicine, law, engineering, business, education, and science require tertiary education credentials, creating strong employment incentives for higher education completion in developed economies. Master's and doctoral degree completion represents advanced specialization and research capability. Countries with high rates of advanced degree completion typically develop stronger research sectors, more innovative industries, and greater capacity for technological leadership. These advanced qualifications enable careers in research, academia, and specialized professional practice. Professional licensing and credentialing often require bachelor's degrees or higher qualifications. Countries with strong professional licensing systems and employer recognition of tertiary credentials achieve higher completion rates as students pursue education necessary for professional practice and career advancement.

2026 Projections and Higher Education Expansion

The projections reflect gradual global improvement in bachelor's degree completion, with most regions showing modest gains as countries recognize the importance of educated workforces for economic development. The largest projected increases occur in middle-income countries where higher education expansion creates pathways to professional employment. Demographic changes influence higher education participation patterns, with aging populations in developed countries creating demand for educated workers in healthcare, education, and professional services. Younger populations in developing countries increasingly pursue tertiary education as economic development creates professional employment opportunities. Digital transformation and knowledge economy development create new opportunities for higher education expansion, particularly in countries developing technology sectors, advanced services, or research capabilities. However, this requires substantial investment in university infrastructure, faculty development, and research facilities to ensure quality tertiary education.

Bachelor's Degree Completion Rate by Country - Adults 25+ (2026)

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#	Country	2019 (%)	2020 (%)	2021 (%)	2022 (%)	2023 (%)	2024 (%)	2026 Estimate (%)
1	United Arab Emirates	46.63%	-	47.18%	51.07%	52.72%	52.66%	54.5%
2	Luxembourg	37.13%	37.12%	41.58%	42.04%	41.85%	-	43.5%
3	Ireland	35.47%	37.22%	38.49%	38.43%	41.85%	-	43.1%
4	Switzerland	39.56%	40.41%	39.99%	39.95%	41.26%	41.61%	43%
5	Lithuania	37.33%	38.1%	40.12%	41.41%	41.31%	-	42.5%
6	Russia	-	-	41.22%	-	-	-	42%
7	United Kingdom	-	37.28%	39.59%	-	-	-	41%
8	United States	36.06%	37.52%	35.05%	37.66%	38.6%	39.03%	40.5%
9	Canada	29.77%	30.97%	29.33%	32.35%	32.89%	34.66%	40%
10	South Korea	33.6%	33.87%	34.24%	34.54%	35.64%	36.46%	40%
11	Israel	36.23%	36.51%	37.2%	38.05%	38.3%	-	39.5%
12	Australia	33.09%	35.02%	35.96%	36.84%	35.76%	36.78%	39%
13	Kazakhstan	37.68%	-	-	-	-	-	39%
14	Belgium	35.3%	35.47%	37.58%	36.31%	37.41%	-	38.6%
15	Japan	-	25.54%	-	-	-	-	38%
16	Netherlands	34.28%	34.77%	35.43%	36.39%	36.56%	-	37.8%
17	Singapore	32.37%	32.98%	36.06%	36.19%	-	-	37.4%
18	Saudi Arabia	24.54%	31.05%	31.11%	31.33%	30.89%	36.04%	37.2%
19	Sweden	25.08%	32.54%	32.62%	33.66%	34.88%	-	36.4%
20	Cyprus	28.87%	29.8%	31.78%	33.16%	34.72%	-	36.2%
21	Ukraine	34.75%	-	-	-	-	-	36.2%
22	Iceland	36.14%	36.62%	-	34.24%	34.46%	-	36%
23	Georgia	33.67%	33.16%	33.53%	34.02%	34.2%	33.69%	35.2%
24	Denmark	31.52%	33.09%	32.72%	33.08%	33.62%	-	35.1%
25	Latvia	30.94%	-	32.2%	32.57%	33.2%	-	34.7%
26	Estonia	-	30.85%	31.73%	32.66%	32.94%	-	34.4%
27	New Zealand	-	32.28%	-	-	-	-	33.8%
28	Norway	29.29%	-	33.59%	31.67%	32.19%	-	33.7%
29	Mongolia	31.54%	32.6%	32.79%	31.64%	31.16%	-	32.7%
30	Puerto Rico	-	27.59%	-	29.84%	30.83%	-	32.3%
31	France	19.7%	20.98%	22.94%	23.59%	24.35%	-	32%
32	Germany	27.2%	28.35%	29.4%	29.58%	30.53%	-	32%
33	Qatar	-	-	-	30.39%	-	-	31.9%
34	Curaçao	-	30.17%	-	-	-	-	31.7%
35	Finland	25.94%	30.29%	28.53%	28.86%	29.89%	-	31.4%
36	Bahrain	-	23.33%	-	29.78%	29.58%	29.22%	30.7%
37	Greece	24.4%	26.04%	28.18%	28.93%	28.03%	28.94%	30.4%
38	Spain	23.08%	23.58%	24.9%	24.15%	25.04%	-	30%
39	Belarus	28.3%	-	-	-	-	-	29.8%
40	Poland	27.33%	28.01%	-	-	-	-	29.5%
41	Italy	16.46%	16.55%	16.3%	16.49%	17.58%	-	28%
42	Bulgaria	24.76%	26.05%	26.25%	26.01%	26.37%	-	27.9%
43	Hungary	22.63%	24.08%	25.83%	26.16%	26.35%	-	27.9%
44	Malta	21.98%	21.84%	24.32%	24.44%	26.3%	-	27.8%
45	Armenia	27.49%	24.21%	28.58%	24.3%	25.91%	-	27.4%
46	Slovakia	22.86%	23.62%	24.51%	25.77%	25.29%	-	26.8%
47	Andorra	-	-	-	25.04%	-	-	26.5%
48	Portugal	20.72%	22.51%	22.45%	23.12%	23.5%	24.91%	26.4%
49	Kyrgyzstan	-	-	-	-	23.93%	-	25.4%
50	Jordan	18.55%	18.63%	19.13%	18.74%	23.23%	-	24.7%
51	Palestine	21.68%	21.71%	22.14%	22.75%	-	22.79%	24.3%
52	Moldova	20.05%	20.19%	20.43%	20.39%	20.96%	22.56%	24.1%
53	Chile	18.6%	19.17%	19.61%	20.28%	21.54%	22.27%	23.8%
54	Lebanon	22.14%	-	-	-	-	-	23.6%
55	Croatia	18.04%	18.83%	19.3%	19.69%	21.96%	-	23.5%
56	Czech Republic	20.91%	21.39%	22.85%	22.29%	21.96%	-	23.5%
57	Slovenia	21.51%	23.75%	26.59%	26.09%	22.04%	-	23.5%
58	Türkiye	-	-	20.5%	20.94%	21.86%	-	23.4%
59	Costa Rica	-	21.61%	-	-	-	-	23.1%
60	Timor-Leste	-	-	-	20.37%	-	-	21.9%
61	Bolivia	24.7%	26.82%	-	16.89%	20.12%	-	21.6%
62	North Macedonia	17.54%	21.68%	19.4%	19.82%	-	20.03%	21.5%
63	Serbia	15.52%	16.29%	17.23%	24.85%	18.67%	19.99%	21.5%
64	Aruba	-	-	-	-	19.6%	-	21.1%
65	Montenegro	19.77%	19.58%	-	-	-	-	21.1%
66	Oman	-	17.1%	-	19.11%	-	-	20.6%
67	Brunei	17.46%	15.48%	15.92%	17.58%	18.51%	-	20%
68	China	-	7.68%	-	-	-	-	20%
69	San Marino	-	18.19%	-	18.39%	-	-	19.9%
70	Philippines	24.41%	20.34%	21.71%	18.08%	-	-	19.6%
71	Iran	16.68%	16.73%	17.23%	17.69%	17.92%	-	19.4%
72	Azerbaijan	15.72%	-	-	-	17.67%	-	19.2%
73	Colombia	12.07%	12.85%	-	16.2%	16.47%	17.68%	19.2%
74	Albania	17.32%	17.8%	18.2%	19.83%	17.51%	-	19%
75	Thailand	15.63%	-	-	17.35%	-	-	18.9%
76	Ecuador	-	11.94%	12.4%	17.08%	-	-	18.6%
77	Uzbekistan	16.43%	-	16.45%	16.85%	-	-	18.4%
78	Bahamas	16.67%	-	-	-	-	-	18.2%
79	Austria	15.36%	15.97%	16.61%	-	-	-	18.1%
80	Samoa	11%	-	-	16.48%	-	-	18%
81	Paraguay	13.99%	14.19%	-	-	-	16.16%	17.7%
82	Cuba	15.33%	-	-	-	-	-	16.8%
83	New Caledonia	15.19%	-	-	-	-	-	16.7%
84	Mexico	-	17.13%	-	-	-	-	16%
85	Antigua and Barbuda	-	-	11.89%	-	14.69%	-	15.7%
86	Palau	-	14.69%	-	-	-	-	15.7%
87	Malaysia	12.39%	-	-	14.56%	-	-	15.6%
88	Panama	19.63%	-	-	16.21%	16.13%	14.6%	15.6%
89	Romania	14.79%	15.14%	13.98%	15.28%	14.6%	-	15.6%
90	Dominican Republic	14.36%	-	-	-	-	-	15.4%
91	Comoros	-	-	-	14.06%	-	-	15.1%
92	South Africa	7.21%	6.64%	12.96%	6.09%	7.02%	14.35%	15%
93	Uruguay	11.84%	-	-	-	-	12.93%	13.9%
94	Tunisia	13.88%	-	-	-	12.8%	-	13.8%
95	Mauritius	9.49%	11.6%	7.37%	7.99%	11.67%	-	12.7%
96	Turks and Caicos Islands	11.75%	-	-	-	-	-	12.7%
97	Algeria	11.44%	-	-	-	-	-	12.4%
98	Bosnia and Herzegovina	7%	10.59%	11.7%	12.29%	11.28%	-	12.3%
99	Vietnam	10.25%	10.36%	10.27%	11.52%	11.32%	-	12.3%
100	Saint Lucia	-	11.06%	-	-	-	-	12.1%
101	Egypt	-	-	17.77%	-	18.05%	-	12%
102	India	12.02%	12.22%	-	12.14%	14.88%	-	12%
103	Maldives	10.96%	-	-	-	-	-	12%
104	Iraq	-	-	10.94%	-	-	-	11.9%
105	Jamaica	-	-	-	10.95%	-	-	11.9%
106	Trinidad and Tobago	-	-	-	10.14%	-	-	11.1%
107	Fiji	-	-	10.02%	-	-	-	11%
108	Turkmenistan	13.84%	-	-	9.59%	-	-	10.6%
109	Seychelles	-	-	-	-	9.52%	-	10.5%
110	Myanmar	9.35%	-	-	-	-	-	10.4%
111	Indonesia	8.79%	10.52%	-	9.48%	9.33%	-	10.3%
112	Nigeria	6.57%	-	10.97%	3.48%	3.8%	10.57%	10%
113	Suriname	-	-	-	8.93%	-	-	9.9%
114	Namibia	-	-	-	-	8.58%	-	9.6%
115	Bhutan	-	-	-	8.48%	-	-	9.5%
116	Sudan	-	-	-	8.08%	-	-	9.1%
117	Grenada	5.97%	6.04%	6.6%	-	7.92%	-	8.4%
118	Bangladesh	9.76%	-	9.79%	7.57%	7.5%	-	8%
119	Botswana	8.19%	8.34%	8.84%	9.52%	7.44%	-	7.9%
120	Honduras	9.63%	-	-	-	6.52%	7.39%	7.9%
121	El Salvador	8.34%	8.43%	-	-	7.27%	-	7.8%
122	Belize	6.68%	7.88%	-	7.01%	-	-	7.5%
123	Dominica	-	-	6.84%	-	-	-	7.3%
124	Kenya	4.81%	3.74%	5.69%	5.48%	-	6.76%	7.3%
125	Pakistan	8.95%	-	9.93%	-	-	-	7%
126	Rwanda	6.02%	3.31%	5.87%	4.46%	5.15%	6.5%	7%
127	Eswatini	-	-	-	6.41%	-	-	6.9%
128	Ghana	-	-	6.58%	6.29%	-	-	6.8%
129	Laos	-	-	-	5.19%	6.27%	-	6.8%
130	Tonga	9.49%	-	5.46%	-	5.99%	-	6.5%
131	Cambodia	0.11%	5.94%	4.56%	-	5.82%	-	6.3%
132	Wallis and Futuna	5.26%	-	-	-	-	-	5.8%
133	Guatemala	4.32%	-	-	5.69%	4.16%	5.08%	5.6%
134	Liberia	5.06%	-	-	-	-	-	5.6%
135	Ivory Coast	-	-	4.98%	-	-	-	5.5%
136	Sao Tome and Principe	4.85%	-	-	-	-	-	5.3%
137	Guyana	4.47%	-	-	-	-	-	5%
138	Togo	5.29%	-	-	4.44%	-	-	4.9%
139	Uganda	4.25%	-	4.44%	-	-	-	4.9%
140	Somalia	-	-	-	4.27%	-	-	4.8%
141	Marshall Islands	6.24%	-	4.19%	-	-	-	4.7%
142	Benin	3.78%	-	3.06%	3.85%	-	-	4.4%
143	Ethiopia	3.44%	-	6.29%	3.79%	-	-	4.3%
144	Senegal	3.64%	-	-	4.9%	3.81%	-	4.3%
145	Vanuatu	2.09%	2.58%	-	-	3.34%	-	3.8%
146	Papua New Guinea	-	-	-	3.14%	-	-	3.6%
147	Mozambique	-	3.32%	-	3.04%	-	-	3.5%
148	Madagascar	-	-	2.93%	-	-	-	3.4%
149	Zambia	-	-	-	-	2.8%	-	3.3%
150	Guinea-Bissau	-	-	-	2.62%	-	-	3.1%
151	Burkina Faso	2.12%	-	2.4%	1.56%	2.29%	2.5%	3%
152	Gambia	-	1.88%	-	-	2.51%	-	3%
153	Mali	3.09%	1.56%	-	2.33%	-	-	2.8%
154	Tanzania	-	-	-	2.32%	-	-	2.8%
155	Nauru	-	-	-	-	2.12%	-	2.6%
156	Sierra Leone	1.96%	-	-	-	-	-	2.5%
157	Central African Republic	1.81%	-	-	-	-	-	2.3%
158	Chad	1.76%	-	-	-	-	-	2.3%
159	Kiribati	4.06%	1.99%	-	-	1.76%	-	2.3%
160	Afghanistan	-	3.72%	3.07%	3.98%	-	-	2%
161	Malawi	-	1.32%	-	-	-	-	1.8%
162	Zimbabwe	5.71%	-	0.96%	0.91%	1.13%	-	1.6%
163	Angola	0.09%	-	-	-	-	-	1.5%
164	Niger	1.23%	-	-	0.97%	-	-	1.5%
165	Sri Lanka	0.75%	0.69%	0.76%	0.91%	-	-	1.4%

Methodology

This analysis employs UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) data from household surveys and censuses across 165 countries with available data for 2019-2024 (2000-2024 dataset). The indicator measures the percentage of adults aged 25 and older who have completed tertiary education (ISCED 6 and above) or achieved higher educational levels, based on self-reported educational attainment in nationally representative surveys.

The 2026 estimates represent scenario-informed comparative assessments, not authoritative predictions or exact forecasts. They indicate probable direction and relative magnitude based on individual country evaluation incorporating higher education system factors. For each country, we conducted contextual assessment examining historical completion trends (calculating annual change rates where multiple data points exist), tertiary education system development, economic development trajectory creating demand for educated professionals, and data reliability considerations. Countries with clear trends and recent data use observed patterns as foundation, while those with limited or older data are assessed using regional benchmarks and comparable country analysis within consistent analytical constraints applied across all countries. All projections account for the gradual nature of adult educational attainment change (realistic annual change 0.6-1.8 percentage points) and economic constraints based on labor market structure. Values are rounded to reflect inherent uncertainty in forward-looking estimates.

Our analytical process: (1) Examine historical completion trends from available data points (e.g., if 2015: 25% and 2023: 30%, annual rate = +0.6%/year), (2) Evaluate sustainability given economic structure and tertiary education system capacity, (3) Analyze education-specific developments relevant to bachelor's degree completion (university expansion and infrastructure development, research program establishment and funding, faculty recruitment and advanced degree training, professional employment opportunities in knowledge-intensive sectors, technology sector growth requiring educated workforce, healthcare and education sector expansion, government investment in higher education, demographic changes as educated youth cohorts age into 25+ group), (4) Compare with regional context and comparable countries to validate reasonableness, (5) Adjust for baseline value and economic constraints (higher baselines = slower change due to saturation effects), (6) Consider data recency and higher education developments during data gaps.

Most countries have recent data (2020+), representing current completion levels with 165 countries having data from 2019-2024. For countries with older data in the full dataset, we assessed higher education-specific developments during the data gap: university construction and infrastructure modernization, research program establishment and funding expansion, faculty recruitment and advanced degree training programs, professional employment opportunities in knowledge-intensive sectors, technology sector growth requiring educated workforce, healthcare and education sector expansion creating professional demand, government higher education investment and scholarship programs, demographic transition as educated youth cohorts mature into the 25+ population. In developed countries with established tertiary education systems, bachelor's degree completion rates reflect mature systems with limited growth potential due to saturation effects. These contextual factors are used qualitatively to inform direction and magnitude, not as precise quantitative inputs. Countries with strong economic development show larger projected increases reflecting higher education expansion to meet professional workforce demands. Developed countries with established systems show minimal change due to already achieving high completion rates. Low-income countries show modest improvements constrained by limited tertiary education infrastructure and economic opportunities for educated professionals.