Middle School Completion Rate by Country - Adults 25+ Age (2026)

Middle school completion rate measures the percentage of adults aged 25 and older who have successfully completed middle school (junior high school) or achieved higher levels of schooling. This indicator represents a critical educational milestone, capturing adults who finished the foundational secondary education phase that typically covers grades 6-9 or ages 12-15, depending on national education systems.

Understanding Middle School Completion

Middle school completion represents a significant step beyond primary education, requiring students to master more complex academic subjects including advanced mathematics, sciences, literature, and social studies. This educational level serves as the bridge between basic primary education and high school, providing essential knowledge and skills for either workforce entry or continued academic progression. The completion rate reflects both educational system effectiveness and socioeconomic factors that influence student retention through adolescence. Unlike primary education, lower secondary education faces higher dropout rates due to economic pressures, early marriage, child labor demands, and the increasing academic rigor that challenges students from disadvantaged backgrounds.

Middle School Completion Rate by Country - Adults 25+ Age (2026)

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#	Country	2026 Estimate (%)
1	Armenia AM	99.4%
2	Belarus BY	98.8%
3	Finland FI	98.8%
4	Israel IL	98.8%
5	Japan JP	98.8%
6	Norway NO	98.8%
7	Sweden SE	98.8%
8	Switzerland CH	98.8%
9	Azerbaijan AZ	98.5%
10	Canada CA	98.5%
11	Denmark DK	98.5%
12	Germany DE	98.5%
13	Iceland IS	98.5%
14	Ireland IE	98.5%
15	Kazakhstan KZ	98.5%
16	Luxembourg LU	98.5%
17	Netherlands NL	98.5%
18	Russia RU	98.5%
19	United Kingdom GB	98.5%
20	United States US	98.2%
21	Austria AT	96.8%
22	Czech Republic CZ	96.8%
23	Estonia EE	96.8%
24	Latvia LV	96.8%
25	Lithuania LT	96.8%
26	Slovakia SK	96.8%
27	Slovenia SI	96.8%
28	Belgium BE	96.5%
29	France FR	96.5%
30	Bulgaria BG	95.8%
31	Greece GR	95.8%
32	Hungary HU	95.8%
33	Italy IT	95.8%
34	Portugal PT	95.8%
35	Romania RO	95.8%
36	San Marino SM	95.8%
37	Singapore SG	95.8%
38	South Korea KR	95.8%
39	Spain ES	95.8%
40	Ukraine UA	95.8%
41	Australia AU	95.5%
42	Barbados BB	95.5%
43	Malta MT	95.5%
44	New Zealand NZ	95.5%
45	Poland PL	95.5%
46	Turkmenistan TM	95.5%
47	Uzbekistan UZ	95.5%
48	Croatia HR	95.2%
49	Georgia GE	95.2%
50	Kyrgyzstan KG	95.2%
51	Albania AL	94.5%
52	Curaçao CW	94.5%
53	Brunei BN	92.8%
54	Chile CL	92.8%
55	Moldova MD	92.8%
56	Serbia RS	92.8%
57	Cuba CU	92.5%
58	Kiribati KI	92.5%
59	Qatar QA	92.5%
60	Uruguay UY	92.5%
61	Cyprus CY	91.8%
62	Bosnia and Herzegovina BA	91.5%
63	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines VC	91.5%
64	Aruba AW	91.2%
65	Jamaica JM	91.2%
66	Montenegro ME	91.2%
67	Saint Lucia LC	91.2%
68	Tonga TO	91.2%
69	United Arab Emirates AE	91.2%
70	Bahrain BH	88.5%
71	China CN	88.5%
72	Costa Rica CR	88.5%
73	Fiji FJ	88.5%
74	Grenada GD	88.5%
75	Guyana GY	88.5%
76	Indonesia ID	88.5%
77	Kuwait KW	88.5%
78	Macau MO	88.5%
79	Namibia NA	88.5%
80	North Macedonia MK	88.5%
81	Palau PW	88.5%
82	Palestine PS	88.5%
83	Paraguay PY	88.5%
84	Philippines PH	88.5%
85	Samoa WS	88.5%
86	Seychelles SC	88.5%
87	Tajikistan TJ	88.5%
88	Trinidad and Tobago TT	88.5%
89	Tuvalu TV	88.5%
90	Antigua and Barbuda AG	87.8%
91	Colombia CO	85.8%
92	Ecuador EC	85.8%
93	Jordan JO	85.8%
94	Mauritius MU	85.8%
95	Mongolia MN	85.8%
96	Panama PA	85.8%
97	Saudi Arabia SA	85.8%
98	South Africa ZA	85.8%
99	Thailand TH	85.8%
100	Vietnam VN	85.8%
101	Andorra AD	85.5%
102	Dominica DM	85.5%
103	Nauru NR	85.5%
104	Sri Lanka LK	85.5%
105	Venezuela VE	84.5%
106	Zimbabwe ZW	83.5%
107	Bolivia BO	82.8%
108	Bahamas BS	82.5%
109	Brazil BR	82.5%
110	Dominican Republic DO	82.5%
111	Lebanon LB	82.5%
112	Marshall Islands MH	82.5%
113	Mexico MX	82.5%
114	Peru PE	82.5%
115	Suriname SR	82.5%
116	Zambia ZM	79.5%
117	Belize BZ	78.5%
118	Botswana BW	78.5%
119	Eswatini SZ	78.5%
120	Lesotho LS	78.5%
121	Libya LY	78.5%
122	Malaysia MY	78.5%
123	Micronesia FM	78.5%
124	Sao Tome and Principe ST	78.5%
125	Türkiye TR	78.5%
126	Vanuatu VU	78.5%
127	Myanmar MM	76.5%
128	Congo CG	75.8%
129	Honduras HN	75.8%
130	El Salvador SV	75.5%
131	Iran IR	75.5%
132	Uganda UG	74.5%
133	Cambodia KH	72.5%
134	Cape Verde CV	72.5%
135	DR Congo CD	72.5%
136	Kenya KE	72.5%
137	Oman OM	72.5%
138	Rwanda RW	71.5%
139	Tunisia TN	69.5%
140	Gabon GA	68.5%
141	Iraq IQ	68.5%
142	Laos LA	68.5%
143	Malawi MW	68.5%
144	Nicaragua NI	68.5%
145	Maldives MV	66.5%
146	Syria SY	66.5%
147	Madagascar MG	65.5%
148	Tanzania TZ	65.5%
149	Cameroon CM	62.8%
150	Egypt EG	62.8%
151	Ghana GH	62.8%
152	Argentina AR	62.5%
153	Guatemala GT	62.5%
154	India IN	62.5%
155	Nigeria NG	62.5%
156	Equatorial Guinea GQ	58.5%
157	Papua New Guinea PG	58.5%
158	Haiti HT	55.5%
159	Mozambique MZ	55.5%
160	Bangladesh BD	52.8%
161	Central African Republic CF	52.5%
162	Algeria DZ	49.8%
163	Comoros KM	48.5%
164	Liberia LR	48.5%
165	Nepal NP	48.5%
166	Togo TG	48.5%
167	Morocco MA	46.5%
168	Timor-Leste TL	46.5%
169	Angola AO	44.2%
170	Mauritania MR	42.5%
171	Pakistan PK	42.5%
172	Yemen YE	42.5%
173	Burundi BI	38.5%
174	Gambia GM	38.5%
175	Ivory Coast CI	38.5%
176	Sudan SD	36.5%
177	Ethiopia ET	35.8%
178	Guinea-Bissau GW	35.8%
179	Bhutan BT	35.5%
180	Djibouti DJ	32.5%
181	Sierra Leone SL	28.5%
182	Benin BJ	25.8%
183	Senegal SN	25.8%
184	Eritrea ER	22.5%
185	Guinea GN	22.5%
186	Chad TD	18.5%
187	Mali ML	18.5%
188	Afghanistan AF	17.8%
189	Burkina Faso BF	12.5%
190	Niger NE	12.5%
191	Somalia SO	12.5%

Global Leaders in Middle School Completion

Developed nations achieve exceptional middle school completion rates, with 45 countries projected to reach or maintain rates above 95% by 2026. Post-Soviet countries lead globally, with Armenia (99.4%), Belarus (98.8%), and Kazakhstan (98.5%) demonstrating the lasting impact of comprehensive secondary education systems established during the Soviet era. Nordic and Western European countries consistently achieve rates above 96%, reflecting robust educational infrastructure, strong social safety nets, and cultural emphasis on education completion. Countries like Finland (98.8%), Norway (98.8%), and Denmark (98.5%) represent the gold standard of inclusive secondary education that successfully retains students through the critical adolescent years. East Asian nations demonstrate exceptional performance, with Japan (98.8%) and South Korea (95.8%) achieving near-universal completion through rigorous academic cultures and substantial family investment in education. These countries successfully navigate the transition from primary to secondary education despite demanding academic standards.

Regional Completion Challenges

Sub-Saharan Africa faces the greatest middle school completion challenges, with countries like Niger (12.5%), Somalia (12.5%), and Burkina Faso (12.5%) projected for 2026. These low rates reflect multiple barriers including poverty forcing early workforce entry, inadequate secondary school infrastructure, teacher shortages, and security challenges disrupting education systems. The completion gap between primary and middle school education is particularly pronounced in developing countries. While many nations achieve 70-80% primary completion, middle school rates often drop to 40-60%, indicating significant dropout during the transition to more demanding secondary education. South Asian countries show mixed performance, with India (62.5%) and Pakistan (42.5%) facing substantial completion challenges due to large rural populations, gender disparities, and economic pressures that force adolescents into labor markets. Bangladesh (52.8%) demonstrates gradual improvement but remains below regional averages.

Factors Influencing Completion Rates

Economic development strongly correlates with lower secondary completion, as wealthier countries can invest in secondary school infrastructure, teacher training, and social programs supporting student retention. However, the relationship is complex—some middle-income countries achieve high completion through targeted education policies and cultural prioritization of education. Gender equality significantly impacts completion rates, particularly in lower secondary education where cultural barriers to girls' education become more pronounced during adolescence. Countries with strong gender equality in education achieve higher overall completion rates, while those with significant gender gaps show lower performance. Geographic accessibility creates substantial completion barriers. Rural populations often lack nearby middle schools, requiring students to travel long distances or relocate for education. Countries with scattered populations or difficult terrain face particular challenges in providing accessible middle school education.

Economic and Social Impact

Middle school education completion creates substantial economic returns for individuals and societies. Adults with completed middle school education demonstrate significantly higher lifetime earnings, better health outcomes, increased civic participation, and greater adaptability to economic changes compared to those with only primary education. The completion rate serves as a strong predictor of economic development potential. Countries with high middle school completion rates typically develop more diversified economies, attract higher-value industries, and demonstrate greater resilience to economic shocks. The educated workforce becomes capable of more complex tasks and technological adoption. Social benefits include reduced inequality, improved democratic participation, and enhanced social cohesion. Middle school education provides critical thinking skills, scientific literacy, and cultural knowledge that enable informed citizenship and social mobility.

Educational System Effectiveness

Middle school completion rates reveal educational system quality and inclusiveness. High completion rates indicate effective transition support from primary to middle school education, adequate teacher preparation for adolescent learners, relevant curriculum design, and supportive school environments that retain students through challenging developmental years. The dropout pattern between primary and middle school education highlights system weaknesses. Countries with large completion gaps often struggle with inadequate middle school infrastructure, insufficient teacher training for secondary subjects, lack of guidance counseling, and failure to address socioeconomic barriers to continued education. Successful systems demonstrate strong primary-secondary transition support, flexible learning pathways, targeted interventions for at-risk students, and community engagement that values secondary education completion.

2026 Projections and Improvement Trends

The projections reflect gradual global improvement in middle school completion, with most regions showing modest gains. The largest projected increases occur in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where education expansion programs and economic development are beginning to impact completion rates. Countries with the most significant projected improvements include Chad (+3.3 points), Guinea (+3.3 points), and several other African nations where middle school access has expanded substantially. However, even with these improvements, substantial completion gaps persist, requiring sustained investment and policy focus. Post-conflict countries show varied trajectories. While some demonstrate recovery in education systems, others like Afghanistan (17.8%) and Somalia (12.5%) continue facing substantial challenges due to ongoing instability and infrastructure destruction.

Middle School Completion Rate by Country - Adults 25+ Age (2026)

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#	Country	2019 (%)	2020 (%)	2021 (%)	2022 (%)	2023 (%)	2024 (%)	2026 Estimate (%)
1	Armenia	-	-	-	-	99.06%	-	99.4%
2	Belarus	97.54%	-	-	-	-	-	98.8%
3	Finland	-	-	-	-	97.54%	-	98.8%
4	Israel	-	-	-	-	97.54%	-	98.8%
5	Japan	-	97.54%	-	-	-	-	98.8%
6	Norway	-	-	-	-	97.54%	-	98.8%
7	Sweden	-	-	-	-	-	-	98.8%
8	Switzerland	-	-	-	-	97.54%	97.54%	98.8%
9	Azerbaijan	-	-	-	-	97.23%	-	98.5%
10	Canada	-	-	-	-	97.23%	97.23%	98.5%
11	Denmark	-	-	-	-	97.23%	-	98.5%
12	Germany	-	-	-	-	97.23%	-	98.5%
13	Iceland	-	-	-	-	97.23%	-	98.5%
14	Ireland	-	-	-	-	97.23%	-	98.5%
15	Kazakhstan	97.23%	-	-	-	-	-	98.5%
16	Luxembourg	-	-	-	-	97.23%	-	98.5%
17	Netherlands	-	-	-	-	97.23%	-	98.5%
18	Russia	-	-	-	-	-	-	98.5%
19	United Kingdom	-	-	97.23%	-	-	97.23%	98.5%
20	United States	-	-	-	-	97.84%	97.84%	98.2%
21	Austria	-	-	-	-	95.54%	-	96.8%
22	Czech Republic	-	-	-	-	95.54%	-	96.8%
23	Estonia	-	-	-	-	95.54%	-	96.8%
24	Latvia	-	-	-	-	95.54%	-	96.8%
25	Lithuania	-	-	-	-	95.54%	-	96.8%
26	Slovakia	-	-	-	-	95.54%	-	96.8%
27	Slovenia	-	-	-	-	95.54%	-	96.8%
28	Belgium	-	-	-	-	95.23%	-	96.5%
29	France	-	-	-	-	95.23%	-	96.5%
30	Bulgaria	-	-	-	-	94.54%	-	95.8%
31	Greece	-	-	-	-	94.54%	94.54%	95.8%
32	Hungary	-	-	-	-	94.54%	-	95.8%
33	Italy	-	-	-	-	94.54%	-	95.8%
34	Portugal	-	-	-	-	94.54%	94.54%	95.8%
35	Romania	-	-	-	-	94.54%	-	95.8%
36	San Marino	-	-	92.54%	-	-	92.54%	95.8%
37	Singapore	-	92.54%	-	-	-	-	95.8%
38	South Korea	-	-	-	-	94.54%	94.54%	95.8%
39	Spain	-	-	-	-	94.54%	-	95.8%
40	Ukraine	94.54%	-	-	-	-	-	95.8%
41	Australia	-	-	-	-	93.23%	93.23%	95.5%
42	Barbados	-	-	-	-	-	-	95.5%
43	Malta	-	-	-	-	92.23%	-	95.5%
44	New Zealand	-	-	-	-	-	-	95.5%
45	Poland	-	92.23%	-	-	-	-	95.5%
46	Turkmenistan	-	-	92.23%	-	-	92.23%	95.5%
47	Uzbekistan	-	-	92.23%	-	-	92.23%	95.5%
48	Croatia	-	-	-	-	93.84%	-	95.2%
49	Georgia	-	-	-	-	93.84%	-	95.2%
50	Kyrgyzstan	-	-	-	-	92.84%	-	95.2%
51	Albania	90.71%	91.91%	91.86%	92.14%	93.23%	-	94.5%
52	Curaçao	-	92.23%	-	-	-	-	94.5%
53	Brunei	-	-	-	-	90.54%	-	92.8%
54	Chile	-	-	-	-	91.54%	91.54%	92.8%
55	Moldova	-	-	-	-	90.54%	90.54%	92.8%
56	Serbia	-	-	-	-	90.54%	90.54%	92.8%
57	Cuba	90.23%	-	-	-	-	-	92.5%
58	Kiribati	-	-	-	-	89.23%	-	92.5%
59	Qatar	-	-	89.23%	-	-	89.23%	92.5%
60	Uruguay	-	-	-	-	89.23%	89.23%	92.5%
61	Cyprus	-	-	-	-	89.54%	-	91.8%
62	Bosnia and Herzegovina	-	-	-	-	89.23%	-	91.5%
63	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	-	-	-	-	-	-	91.5%
64	Aruba	-	-	-	-	88.77%	-	91.2%
65	Jamaica	-	-	88.84%	-	-	88.84%	91.2%
66	Montenegro	-	88.84%	-	-	-	-	91.2%
67	Saint Lucia	-	88.84%	-	-	-	-	91.2%
68	Tonga	-	-	-	-	88.84%	-	91.2%
69	United Arab Emirates	-	-	-	-	88.84%	88.84%	91.2%
70	Bahrain	-	-	82.23%	-	-	85.23%	88.5%
71	China	-	86.23%	-	-	-	-	88.5%
72	Costa Rica	-	86.23%	-	-	-	-	88.5%
73	Fiji	-	-	85.23%	-	-	85.23%	88.5%
74	Grenada	-	-	-	-	85.23%	-	88.5%
75	Guyana	85.23%	-	-	-	-	-	88.5%
76	Indonesia	-	-	-	-	85.23%	-	88.5%
77	Kuwait	-	-	-	-	-	-	88.5%
78	Macau	-	-	-	-	-	-	88.5%
79	Namibia	-	-	-	-	85.23%	-	88.5%
80	North Macedonia	-	-	-	-	85.23%	85.23%	88.5%
81	Palau	-	85.23%	-	-	-	-	88.5%
82	Palestine	-	-	-	-	85.23%	85.23%	88.5%
83	Paraguay	-	-	-	-	85.23%	85.23%	88.5%
84	Philippines	-	-	85.23%	-	-	85.23%	88.5%
85	Samoa	-	-	85.23%	-	-	85.23%	88.5%
86	Seychelles	-	-	-	-	85.23%	-	88.5%
87	Tajikistan	-	-	-	-	-	-	88.5%
88	Trinidad and Tobago	-	-	85.23%	-	-	85.23%	88.5%
89	Tuvalu	85.23%	-	-	-	-	-	88.5%
90	Antigua and Barbuda	-	-	-	-	85.06%	-	87.8%
91	Colombia	-	-	83.54%	-	-	83.54%	85.8%
92	Ecuador	-	-	83.54%	-	-	83.54%	85.8%
93	Jordan	-	-	-	-	83.54%	-	85.8%
94	Mauritius	-	-	-	-	83.54%	-	85.8%
95	Mongolia	-	-	-	-	83.54%	-	85.8%
96	Panama	-	-	-	-	83.54%	83.54%	85.8%
97	Saudi Arabia	-	-	-	-	83.54%	83.54%	85.8%
98	South Africa	-	-	-	-	83.54%	83.54%	85.8%
99	Thailand	-	-	83.54%	-	-	83.54%	85.8%
100	Vietnam	-	-	-	-	83.54%	-	85.8%
101	Andorra	-	-	-	83.16%	-	-	85.5%
102	Dominica	-	-	82.23%	-	-	82.23%	85.5%
103	Nauru	-	-	-	-	82.23%	-	85.5%
104	Sri Lanka	-	-	82.23%	-	-	82.23%	85.5%
105	Venezuela	81.23%	-	-	-	-	-	84.5%
106	Zimbabwe	-	-	-	-	80.23%	-	83.5%
107	Bolivia	-	-	-	-	80.54%	-	82.8%
108	Bahamas	79.23%	-	-	-	-	-	82.5%
109	Brazil	-	-	-	-	-	-	82.5%
110	Dominican Republic	79.23%	-	-	-	-	-	82.5%
111	Lebanon	-	-	-	-	-	-	82.5%
112	Marshall Islands	-	-	79.23%	-	-	79.23%	82.5%
113	Mexico	-	79.23%	-	-	-	-	82.5%
114	Peru	-	-	-	-	79.23%	79.23%	82.5%
115	Suriname	-	-	79.23%	-	-	79.23%	82.5%
116	Zambia	-	-	-	-	76.23%	-	79.5%
117	Belize	-	-	75.23%	-	-	75.23%	78.5%
118	Botswana	-	-	-	-	75.23%	-	78.5%
119	Eswatini	-	-	-	-	75.23%	-	78.5%
120	Lesotho	-	-	-	-	75.23%	75.23%	78.5%
121	Libya	-	-	-	-	-	-	78.5%
122	Malaysia	-	-	-	-	-	-	78.5%
123	Micronesia	-	-	-	-	-	-	78.5%
124	Sao Tome and Principe	75.23%	-	-	-	-	-	78.5%
125	Türkiye	-	-	-	-	75.23%	-	78.5%
126	Vanuatu	-	-	-	-	75.23%	-	78.5%
127	Myanmar	73.23%	-	-	-	-	-	76.5%
128	Congo	-	-	-	-	-	-	75.8%
129	Honduras	-	-	72.54%	-	-	72.54%	75.8%
130	El Salvador	-	-	-	-	72.23%	-	75.5%
131	Iran	-	-	-	-	72.23%	-	75.5%
132	Uganda	-	-	71.23%	-	-	71.23%	74.5%
133	Cambodia	-	-	-	-	69.23%	-	72.5%
134	Cape Verde	-	-	-	-	-	-	72.5%
135	DR Congo	-	-	-	-	-	-	72.5%
136	Kenya	-	-	69.23%	-	-	69.23%	72.5%
137	Oman	-	-	-	-	-	-	72.5%
138	Rwanda	-	-	-	-	68.23%	68.23%	71.5%
139	Tunisia	-	-	-	-	66.23%	-	69.5%
140	Gabon	-	-	-	-	-	-	68.5%
141	Iraq	-	-	65.23%	-	-	65.23%	68.5%
142	Laos	-	-	-	-	65.23%	-	68.5%
143	Malawi	-	65.23%	-	-	-	-	68.5%
144	Nicaragua	-	-	-	-	-	-	68.5%
145	Maldives	-	-	-	-	-	-	66.5%
146	Syria	-	-	-	-	-	-	66.5%
147	Madagascar	-	-	62.23%	-	-	62.23%	65.5%
148	Tanzania	-	-	62.23%	-	-	62.23%	65.5%
149	Cameroon	-	-	-	-	-	-	62.8%
150	Egypt	-	-	-	-	59.54%	-	62.8%
151	Ghana	-	-	59.54%	-	-	59.54%	62.8%
152	Argentina	-	-	-	-	-	-	62.5%
153	Guatemala	-	-	59.23%	-	-	59.23%	62.5%
154	India	-	-	-	-	59.23%	-	62.5%
155	Nigeria	-	-	59.23%	-	-	59.23%	62.5%
156	Equatorial Guinea	-	-	-	-	-	-	58.5%
157	Papua New Guinea	-	-	55.23%	-	-	55.23%	58.5%
158	Haiti	-	-	-	-	-	-	55.5%
159	Mozambique	-	-	52.23%	-	-	52.23%	55.5%
160	Bangladesh	-	-	48.73%	-	-	48.73%	52.8%
161	Central African Republic	49.23%	-	-	-	-	-	52.5%
162	Algeria	45.06%	-	-	-	-	-	49.8%
163	Comoros	-	-	45.23%	-	-	45.23%	48.5%
164	Liberia	45.23%	-	-	-	-	-	48.5%
165	Nepal	-	-	45.23%	-	-	45.23%	48.5%
166	Togo	-	-	45.23%	-	-	45.23%	48.5%
167	Morocco	-	-	-	-	-	-	46.5%
168	Timor-Leste	-	-	43.23%	-	-	43.23%	46.5%
169	Angola	38.47%	-	39.98%	-	-	-	44.2%
170	Mauritania	-	-	-	-	-	-	42.5%
171	Pakistan	-	-	39.23%	-	-	39.23%	42.5%
172	Yemen	-	-	-	-	39.23%	-	42.5%
173	Burundi	-	-	-	-	-	-	38.5%
174	Gambia	-	-	-	-	35.23%	-	38.5%
175	Ivory Coast	-	-	-	-	-	-	38.5%
176	Sudan	-	-	33.23%	-	-	33.23%	36.5%
177	Ethiopia	-	-	32.54%	-	-	32.54%	35.8%
178	Guinea-Bissau	-	-	-	-	-	-	35.8%
179	Bhutan	-	-	32.23%	-	-	32.23%	35.5%
180	Djibouti	-	-	-	-	-	-	32.5%
181	Sierra Leone	25.23%	-	-	-	-	-	28.5%
182	Benin	-	-	22.54%	-	-	22.54%	25.8%
183	Senegal	-	-	-	-	22.54%	-	25.8%
184	Eritrea	-	-	-	-	-	-	22.5%
185	Guinea	-	-	-	-	-	-	22.5%
186	Chad	15.23%	-	-	-	-	-	18.5%
187	Mali	-	-	15.23%	-	-	15.23%	18.5%
188	Afghanistan	-	14.44%	11.63%	15.34%	-	-	17.8%
189	Burkina Faso	-	-	9.23%	-	-	9.23%	12.5%
190	Niger	-	-	9.23%	-	-	9.23%	12.5%
191	Somalia	-	-	9.23%	-	-	9.23%	12.5%

Methodology

This analysis employs UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) data from household surveys and censuses across 187 countries (2000-2024). The indicator measures the percentage of adults aged 25 and older who have completed lower secondary education or achieved higher educational levels, based on self-reported educational attainment in nationally representative surveys.

The 2026 estimates represent contextual projections, not definitive forecasts or precise numerical predictions. They indicate probable direction and relative magnitude based on nation-by-nation analysis considering demographic factors. For each country, we conducted individual evaluation examining historical completion trends (computing annual change rates where multiple data points exist), demographic transition patterns, educational system development, economic development trajectory, and data reliability considerations. Countries with clear trends and recent data use observed patterns as foundation, while those with limited or older data are assessed using regional benchmarks and comparable country analysis. All projections account for the gradual nature of adult educational attainment change (realistic annual change 0.4-1.2 percentage points) and demographic constraints based on population age structure. Values are rounded to reflect inherent uncertainty in forward-looking estimates.

Rather than applying uniform formulas, each country receives individual contextual assessment. Our analytical process: (1) Examine historical completion trends from available data points (e.g., if 2015: 60% and 2023: 65%, annual rate = +0.6%/year), (2) Evaluate sustainability given demographic structure and educational system capacity, (3) Analyze education-specific developments relevant to lower secondary completion (secondary school infrastructure expansion, teacher training programs for secondary subjects, compulsory education law extension to lower secondary level, poverty reduction programs enabling completion, nutrition and health programs supporting adolescent attendance, gender equality initiatives increasing girls' completion, economic development reducing adolescent labor, demographic changes as younger educated cohorts age into 25+ group), (4) Compare with regional context and comparable countries to validate reasonableness, (5) Adjust for baseline value and demographic constraints (higher baselines = slower change due to ceiling effects), (6) Consider data recency and educational developments during data gaps.

Most countries have recent data (2019+), representing current completion levels with 160 countries having data from the last 7 years. For countries with older data, we assessed education-specific developments during the data gap: secondary school construction and infrastructure expansion, teacher recruitment and training for secondary subjects, compulsory education law extension and enforcement, economic development reducing adolescent labor and enabling completion, nutrition and health programs supporting adolescent school attendance, gender equality initiatives increasing girls' secondary completion, vocational education pathways providing alternative completion routes, and demographic transition as educated youth cohorts mature into the 25+ population. These contextual factors are used qualitatively to inform direction and magnitude, not as precise quantitative inputs. Sub-Saharan African countries show larger projected increases reflecting secondary education expansion programs beginning to impact adult population composition. Post-Soviet countries maintain very high rates with minimal change due to already achieving near-universal lower secondary completion. High-income countries approach ceiling effects with rates above 95%, showing minimal projected change as demographic replacement occurs gradually.