Middle School Out-of-School Rate by Country 2026

Lower secondary school out-of-school rates measure the percentage of adolescents of lower secondary school age not enrolled in school. This indicator is critical because lower secondary education represents a crucial transition point where many students drop out, particularly in developing countries. Understanding which adolescents are excluded from lower secondary education is essential for identifying and addressing educational inequities.

The Middle School Exclusion Crisis

Middle school out-of-school rates are typically 2-3 times higher than primary school rates in developing nations, indicating a significant dropout pattern between primary and middle school levels. This transition gap reveals that many students who complete primary education do not progress to middle school, often due to economic constraints, distance to schools, or cultural factors.

Out-of-school status at the middle school level results from multiple barriers. Economic constraints intensify as families must support older adolescents. Middle schools are often located farther from homes than primary schools, particularly in rural areas. Gender discrimination increases, particularly for girls. Early marriage, child labor, and family responsibilities also increase at this age. Additionally, middle school education is often not compulsory, reducing enrollment incentives.

Middle School Out-of-School Rate by Country 2026

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#	Country	Out-of-School Rate 2026 Estimate (%) (%)
1	South Sudan SS	96.6%
2	Somalia SO	87.2%
3	Guinea-Bissau GW	86.6%
4	Liberia LR	84.9%
5	Central African Republic CF	83.9%
6	Uganda UG	81.4%
7	Chad TD	79.7%
8	Malawi MW	70.2%
9	Burundi BI	69.9%
10	Haiti HT	69.9%
11	Madagascar MG	67.2%
12	DR Congo CD	67.1%
13	Mauritania MR	67.1%
14	Mozambique MZ	66.6%
15	Pakistan PK	66.2%
16	Angola AO	65.8%
17	Guinea GN	65.2%
18	Mali ML	65.1%
19	Burkina Faso BF	64.6%
20	Ethiopia ET	64.4%
21	Benin BJ	58.8%
22	Senegal SN	58.8%
23	Tanzania TZ	57.2%
24	Zambia ZM	57.1%
25	Papua New Guinea PG	56.4%
26	Sierra Leone SL	56.2%
27	Yemen YE	56.1%
28	Laos LA	55.7%
29	Afghanistan AF	54.2%
30	Niger NE	51.7%
31	Rwanda RW	51.1%
32	Gambia GM	48.7%
33	Sudan SD	46.2%
34	Equatorial Guinea GQ	45.8%
35	Cameroon CM	44.2%
36	Ghana GH	43.9%
37	Ivory Coast CI	43.3%
38	Iraq IQ	41.1%
39	Vanuatu VU	40.4%
40	Gabon GA	39.9%
41	Nigeria NG	39.8%
42	Cambodia KH	38.8%
43	Timor-Leste TL	38.8%
44	Nicaragua NI	36.2%
45	Guatemala GT	35.7%
46	Eswatini SZ	35.7%
47	Morocco MA	35.2%
48	Kenya KE	34.2%
49	Zimbabwe ZW	30.4%
50	El Salvador SV	29.8%
51	Honduras HN	29.2%
52	Comoros KM	29.1%
53	Togo TG	28.8%
54	Nepal NP	27.9%
55	Lesotho LS	27.7%
56	Myanmar MM	26.6%
57	Djibouti DJ	26.2%
58	Namibia NA	26.1%
59	Bangladesh BD	24.9%
60	Venezuela VE	21.1%
61	Nauru NR	20.9%
62	Suriname SR	20.9%
63	Sao Tome and Principe ST	19.4%
64	Bhutan BT	18.8%
65	Congo CG	18.8%
66	Brazil BR	13.6%
67	Kiribati KI	11.9%
68	Panama PA	11.4%
69	Bolivia BO	11.1%
70	Dominican Republic DO	11.1%
71	Egypt EG	11.1%
72	India IN	11.1%
73	Paraguay PY	11.1%
74	Philippines PH	10.9%
75	Colombia CO	10.4%
76	Iran IR	9.6%
77	Tunisia TN	9.4%
78	Algeria DZ	9.2%
79	Chile CL	7.9%
80	Peru PE	7.7%
81	Argentina AR	6.9%
82	Mexico MX	4.9%
83	Trinidad and Tobago TT	4.9%
84	Vietnam VN	4.7%
85	Iceland IS	3.9%
86	Tuvalu TV	3.5%
87	Samoa WS	3.3%
88	Botswana BW	3.2%
89	Albania AL	2.9%
90	Moldova MD	2.9%
91	Malta MT	2.9%
92	Montenegro ME	2.9%
93	Syria SY	2.9%
94	Tonga TO	2.9%
95	Uruguay UY	2.9%
96	Fiji FJ	2.8%
97	Indonesia ID	2.8%
98	South Africa ZA	2.8%
99	China CN	2.7%
100	Jordan JO	2.7%
101	Türkiye TR	2.7%
102	Costa Rica CR	2.6%
103	Luxembourg LU	2.4%
104	Tajikistan TJ	2.4%
105	Jamaica JM	2.2%
106	Qatar QA	2.2%
107	Azerbaijan AZ	2.1%
108	Spain ES	2.1%
109	Barbados BB	1.9%
110	Cyprus CY	1.9%
111	Kyrgyzstan KG	1.9%
112	Saint Lucia LC	1.9%
113	North Macedonia MK	1.9%
114	Portugal PT	1.9%
115	Palestine PS	1.9%
116	Thailand TH	1.9%
117	Uzbekistan UZ	1.9%
118	Guyana GY	1.7%
119	Maldives MV	1.7%
120	Slovenia SI	1.7%
121	Turkmenistan TM	1.7%
122	Ecuador EC	1.6%
123	Romania RO	1.6%
124	Serbia RS	1.5%
125	Greece GR	1.4%
126	Hungary HU	1.4%
127	Mongolia MN	1.4%
128	Slovakia SK	1.4%
129	Belgium BE	1.3%
130	Georgia GE	1.3%
131	Malaysia MY	1.3%
132	Bulgaria BG	1.2%
133	France FR	1.2%
134	Croatia HR	1.2%
135	Latvia LV	1.2%
136	Poland PL	1.2%
137	Ukraine UA	1.2%
138	Armenia AM	1.1%
139	Belarus BY	1.1%
140	Canada CA	1.1%
141	Finland FI	1.1%
142	Lithuania LT	1.1%
143	Netherlands NL	1.1%
144	Russia RU	1.1%
145	Italy IT	1%
146	Norway NO	1%
147	Australia AU	0.9%
148	Bosnia and Herzegovina BA	0.9%
149	Switzerland CH	0.9%
150	Cuba CU	0.9%
151	Denmark DK	0.9%
152	Estonia EE	0.9%
153	United Kingdom GB	0.9%
154	Ireland IE	0.9%
155	Israel IL	0.9%
156	Kazakhstan KZ	0.9%
157	Mauritius MU	0.9%
158	United States US	0.9%
159	Czech Republic CZ	0.8%
160	South Korea KR	0.8%
161	Sweden SE	0.8%
162	Austria AT	0.7%
163	Japan JP	0.7%
164	Germany DE	0.6%

Global Patterns in Middle School Out-of-School Rates

Global middle school out-of-school rates show dramatic disparities. Developed nations typically show rates below 3%, indicating near-universal middle school enrollment. Many developing countries show rates between 10-30%, reflecting significant access challenges. The lowest-performing countries show rates exceeding 50%, indicating that more than half of middle school-age adolescents are not in school.

Sub-Saharan Africa shows the highest middle school out-of-school rates globally, with many countries exceeding 30%. South Asia also shows high rates, particularly for girls. Latin America and East Asia show lower rates, reflecting greater educational development. Developed regions show the lowest rates, with near-universal enrollment at middle school level.

Gender Dimensions of Middle School Exclusion

Gender disparities in middle school out-of-school rates are particularly pronounced. In many developing nations, girls' out-of-school rates at the middle school level exceed boys' rates by 10-20 percentage points. Early marriage, pregnancy, and cultural restrictions on girls' education contribute to this gap. Addressing middle school exclusion requires targeted interventions to support girls' education.

Causes and Consequences of Middle School Out-of-School Status

Middle school out-of-school status has profound consequences for individual and national development. Adolescents not in middle school miss the opportunity to develop advanced literacy, numeracy, and critical thinking skills. They face severely limited employment prospects and earning potential. They are more vulnerable to exploitation, including child labor and trafficking. Girls not in school are at higher risk of early marriage and pregnancy.

For nations, high middle school out-of-school rates indicate severe educational access problems and reflect broader development challenges. Countries with high out-of-school rates typically have lower GDP per capita, higher poverty rates, and less developed infrastructure. Addressing middle school out-of-school status is essential for breaking cycles of poverty and promoting sustainable development.

2026 Projections and Methodology

Projections for 2026 show modest improvements in middle school out-of-school rates globally, with rates expected to decline slightly from 2023 levels. However, these improvements are typically only 2-4 percentage points, suggesting that without significant policy interventions, current disparities will persist.

The 2026 estimates are calculated using linear regression analysis based on historical trends from 2019-2023. This statistical method identifies the rate of change over recent years and projects that trend forward to 2026. The methodology examines each country's historical out-of-school rate trajectory and applies the observed trend to estimate 2026 values. All projections are constrained to the 0-100% range to ensure realistic estimates. This approach assumes that current trends will continue, which may not hold if significant policy changes or external shocks occur.

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted education globally, causing school closures and economic hardship that increased out-of-school rates in many countries. Recovery efforts and renewed investment in education infrastructure will be critical to achieving further improvements in middle school out-of-school rates beyond these projections.

Middle School Out-of-School Rate by Country 2026

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#	Country	Out-of-School Rate 2023 (%) (%)	Out-of-School Rate 2026 Estimate (%) (%)
1	South Sudan	96.8%	96.6%
2	Somalia	87.9%	87.2%
3	Guinea-Bissau	87.7%	86.6%
4	Liberia	85.8%	84.9%
5	Central African Republic	84.7%	83.9%
6	Uganda	81.1%	81.4%
7	Chad	81.1%	79.7%
8	Malawi	71.7%	70.2%
9	Burundi	71.6%	69.9%
10	Haiti	71.7%	69.9%
11	Madagascar	68.8%	67.2%
12	DR Congo	68.8%	67.1%
13	Mauritania	68.8%	67.1%
14	Mozambique	71.1%	66.6%
15	Pakistan	67.9%	66.2%
16	Angola	67.9%	65.8%
17	Guinea	68.8%	65.2%
18	Mali	67.9%	65.1%
19	Burkina Faso	67.9%	64.6%
20	Ethiopia	67.9%	64.4%
21	Benin	61.1%	58.8%
22	Senegal	61.1%	58.8%
23	Tanzania	57.9%	57.2%
24	Zambia	57.9%	57.1%
25	Papua New Guinea	57.7%	56.4%
26	Sierra Leone	57.9%	56.2%
27	Yemen	57.9%	56.1%
28	Laos	57.9%	55.7%
29	Afghanistan	57.7%	54.2%
30	Niger	57.9%	51.7%
31	Rwanda	57.9%	51.1%
32	Gambia	51.1%	48.7%
33	Sudan	47.7%	46.2%
34	Equatorial Guinea	47.9%	45.8%
35	Cameroon	45.9%	44.2%
36	Ghana	45.8%	43.9%
37	Ivory Coast	47.7%	43.3%
38	Iraq	43.3%	41.1%
39	Vanuatu	41.1%	40.4%
40	Gabon	41.7%	39.9%
41	Nigeria	41.1%	39.8%
42	Cambodia	41.1%	38.8%
43	Timor-Leste	41.1%	38.8%
44	Nicaragua	37.9%	36.2%
45	Guatemala	37.9%	35.7%
46	Eswatini	37.9%	35.7%
47	Morocco	37.7%	35.2%
48	Kenya	37.7%	34.2%
49	Zimbabwe	31.1%	30.4%
50	El Salvador	31.1%	29.8%
51	Honduras	31.1%	29.2%
52	Comoros	31.7%	29.1%
53	Togo	31.1%	28.8%
54	Nepal	31.1%	27.9%
55	Lesotho	31.1%	27.7%
56	Myanmar	28.8%	26.6%
57	Djibouti	28.8%	26.2%
58	Namibia	27.7%	26.1%
59	Bangladesh	27.7%	24.9%
60	Venezuela	21.7%	21.1%
61	Nauru	21.7%	20.9%
62	Suriname	21.7%	20.9%
63	Sao Tome and Principe	21.1%	19.4%
64	Bhutan	21.6%	18.8%
65	Congo	21.1%	18.8%
66	Brazil	14.8%	13.6%
67	Kiribati	12.7%	11.9%
68	Panama	12.7%	11.4%
69	Bolivia	12.7%	11.1%
70	Dominican Republic	12.7%	11.1%
71	Egypt	12.7%	11.1%
72	India	12.7%	11.1%
73	Paraguay	12.7%	11.1%
74	Philippines	12.1%	10.9%
75	Colombia	11.6%	10.4%
76	Iran	10.8%	9.6%
77	Tunisia	10.8%	9.4%
78	Algeria	10.4%	9.2%
79	Chile	8.8%	7.9%
80	Peru	8.8%	7.7%
81	Argentina	7.6%	6.9%
82	Mexico	5.8%	4.9%
83	Trinidad and Tobago	5.8%	4.9%
84	Vietnam	5.8%	4.7%
85	Iceland	4.4%	3.9%
86	Tuvalu	3.8%	3.5%
87	Samoa	3.8%	3.3%
88	Botswana	3.8%	3.2%
89	Albania	3.2%	2.9%
90	Moldova	3.2%	2.9%
91	Malta	3.3%	2.9%
92	Montenegro	3.2%	2.9%
93	Syria	3.2%	2.9%
94	Tonga	3.3%	2.9%
95	Uruguay	3.3%	2.9%
96	Fiji	3.2%	2.8%
97	Indonesia	3.3%	2.8%
98	South Africa	3.2%	2.8%
99	China	3.2%	2.7%
100	Jordan	3.2%	2.7%
101	Türkiye	3.2%	2.7%
102	Costa Rica	3.3%	2.6%
103	Luxembourg	2.7%	2.4%
104	Tajikistan	2.7%	2.4%
105	Jamaica	2.7%	2.2%
106	Qatar	2.7%	2.2%
107	Azerbaijan	2.4%	2.1%
108	Spain	2.4%	2.1%
109	Barbados	2.2%	1.9%
110	Cyprus	2.2%	1.9%
111	Kyrgyzstan	2.2%	1.9%
112	Saint Lucia	2.4%	1.9%
113	North Macedonia	2.2%	1.9%
114	Portugal	2.2%	1.9%
115	Palestine	2.4%	1.9%
116	Thailand	2.2%	1.9%
117	Uzbekistan	2.2%	1.9%
118	Guyana	2.2%	1.7%
119	Maldives	2.2%	1.7%
120	Slovenia	1.9%	1.7%
121	Turkmenistan	1.9%	1.7%
122	Ecuador	2.2%	1.6%
123	Romania	1.8%	1.6%
124	Serbia	1.7%	1.5%
125	Greece	1.7%	1.4%
126	Hungary	1.6%	1.4%
127	Mongolia	1.7%	1.4%
128	Slovakia	1.6%	1.4%
129	Belgium	1.5%	1.3%
130	Georgia	1.6%	1.3%
131	Malaysia	1.6%	1.3%
132	Bulgaria	1.4%	1.2%
133	France	1.4%	1.2%
134	Croatia	1.4%	1.2%
135	Latvia	1.4%	1.2%
136	Poland	1.4%	1.2%
137	Ukraine	1.4%	1.2%
138	Armenia	1.3%	1.1%
139	Belarus	1.2%	1.1%
140	Canada	1.3%	1.1%
141	Finland	1.3%	1.1%
142	Lithuania	1.3%	1.1%
143	Netherlands	1.3%	1.1%
144	Russia	1.3%	1.1%
145	Italy	1.2%	1%
146	Norway	1.2%	1%
147	Australia	1.1%	0.9%
148	Bosnia and Herzegovina	1.1%	0.9%
149	Switzerland	1.1%	0.9%
150	Cuba	1.1%	0.9%
151	Denmark	1.1%	0.9%
152	Estonia	1.1%	0.9%
153	United Kingdom	1.1%	0.9%
154	Ireland	1.1%	0.9%
155	Israel	1.1%	0.9%
156	Kazakhstan	1.1%	0.9%
157	Mauritius	1.1%	0.9%
158	United States	1.1%	0.9%
159	Czech Republic	0.9%	0.8%
160	South Korea	0.9%	0.8%
161	Sweden	0.9%	0.8%
162	Austria	0.8%	0.7%
163	Japan	0.8%	0.7%
164	Germany	0.7%	0.6%

Methodology and Data Sources

This analysis uses UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) modelled estimates of middle school out-of-school rates. Modelled estimates provide consistent, comparable data across countries by using statistical techniques to fill gaps in reported data and account for different reporting methodologies.

Out-of-school rates are calculated as: (Number of out-of-school adolescents / Total population of middle school age) × 100

The data reflects 2023 actual rates (the most recent available), with 2026 projections calculated using linear regression analysis based on historical trends from 2019-2023. Using modelled estimates ensures methodological consistency across all 195 countries included in this analysis, though it is important to note that these are statistical estimates rather than direct observations. This approach allows for meaningful comparisons between countries with different education systems and reporting practices.